Trucking Takes Off

Demand in the trucking sector is bad, but at least it’s not going to get much worse. And in an uncertain market that’s good news.

Trucking companies shares skyrocketed on Monday after Bear Stearns analyst Edward Wolfe upgraded the sector, saying that even though the economy is worsening, pricing is close to a bottom.

Mortgage lending forecast to drop

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. mortgage lending will fall by more than 16 percent this year, dragged down by a worsening economy and a slumping mortgage market, an industry group predicted Monday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that U.S. mortgage lending will fall 16.2 percent this year to $1.96 trillion, down from a projected $2.34 trillion last year.

The group also said sales of previously owned U.S. homes will drop by about 13 percent, while median prices fall about 2 percent. New mortgage lending would continue its downward descent in 2009, the group predicted, but home sales and prices would steady a bit.

IBM impresses with earnings

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- IBM issued preliminary quarterly earnings Monday that handily beat Wall Street's estimates, sending its stock soaring.

Armonk, N.Y.-based IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) shares gained nearly 10 percent in pre-market trading on the announcement.

The tech bellwether said fourth-quarter earnings from continuing operations rose to $2.80 a share, up 24 percent from $2.26 a share a year earlier. Wall Street had been expecting earnings of $2.60 a share, according to Thomson Financial.

IBM is due to formally report its results Thursday.

IBM said revenue for the quarter gained 10 percent to $28.9 billion, also beating estimates.

Oil, Gold Show Inflation; TIPS Traders Say Forget It

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Just because oil trades above $100 a barrel, gold fetches more than $900 an ounce and U.S. consumer prices climb at the fastest rate in two years, now is not the time to buy U.S. government securities protected from inflation.

That, at least, is the conclusion of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., Vanguard Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., FAF Advisors and Blackrock Inc., which oversee about $1.5 trillion in fixed-income assets. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which produced the best returns for government debt last year, will prove disappointing in 2008, as the economy struggles with myriad signs of its first recession in six years, the money managers say.

Fed Signals Tougher Response to Faltering Expansion

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, are signaling a more aggressive response to the increasing risk of recession.

Bernanke testifies to Congress on Jan. 17, two days after a government report that economists predict will show retail sales stalled last month after a gain of 1.2 percent in November.

The Fed chief and Governor Frederic Mishkin unveiled the new strategy last week, when they said in speeches that they favor greater ``insurance'' against the prospect of an economic downturn. That's a break from basing policy on central bank forecasts, which anticipate a continued expansion.

``They have been forced into a more aggressive stance simply because the market isn't paying attention to their medium-term forecast,'' said Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``The market doesn't buy their glass-is-quarter-full view of the economy.''

Donald Kohn, the Fed's vice chairman, said in Jan. 5 speech that the officials decided to communicate more often with the public after the financial-market ``turmoil'' that began in August.

``We have tried to provide more information than usual to reduce uncertainty and clarify our intentions,'' Kohn said in a speech in New Orleans.
exceptionally alert and flexible.''